Home Forex Market Analysis USDCHF: Dollar Extends Gains After the Us Posts High June Job Openings

USDCHF: Dollar Extends Gains After the Us Posts High June Job Openings

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USDCHF: Dollar Extends Gains after the US posts high June Job Openings
  • Switzerland posted a decline in its unemployment rate at 3.0% from a previous score of 3.1%. 
  • Job openings for June 2021 increased 6.22% to 10.073 million from 9.209 million. 
  • Food sales in Switzerland dropped 2.1% (YoY while retail sales decreased 3.5% on monthly terms.

The US dollar posted a +0.22% price gain against the Swiss franc as of 7:36 am GMT on August 9, 2021. It re-challenged the previous week’s high of +1.21% hitting a high of 0.9175. Switzerland’s unemployment rate for July 2021 (MoM) remained unchanged at 2.8%. The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for the month declined slightly at 3.0% against a previous score of 3.1%  

This improvement in employment relations and a slight economic upswing led to an increase in consumer sentiment. 

Rising Consumer Sentiment for Q3 2021

Switzerland saw consumer sentiment for Q3 2021 rise to 10 from -18. The general sentiment improved among households in contrast to the pre-crisis period. The economy is still reeling from the effects of Covid-19 after it slumped 8.2% in Q4 2021.

The Swiss franc lost 0.29% against the euro as of 9:07 am GMT on August 9, 2021. At the time, it traded to a -0.35% price change against the Japanese yen and -0.30% against the British pound. 

Positive labor data

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the latest job openings for June 2021, showing an increase to 10.073 million. Consensus estimates were optimistic of higher employment trends at 9.281 million from a previous score of 9.209 million. Employment openings had increased 6.22% from the earlier record. 

Job hires in the US rose to 6.7 million, with total separations standing at 5.6 million. The rate of employment quits also increased to 2.7%, with layoffs and job discharges at 0.9%. In the year leading to June 2021, total job hires stood at 72.1 million, with separations at 65.1 million. The employment gain in 12 months was 6.9 million.  

According to the Conference Board (CB), the employment trends index rose 0.77% from 108.96 in June 2021 to 109.80 in July 2021. The decline in the unemployment rate was noted after more than 1 million new jobs were added in June and July 2021. However, 49% of interviewed firms indicated that they had record vacant positions in July 2021 due to unqualified labor. 

The Conference Board Employment Trends Index ™, January 2000 to Present

As of May 2021, the rate of job openings stagnated at 6.0% to 9.2 million. Openings increased in educational services (+35,000), government education in the state and local governments (+46,000), and other services (+109,000). There were reduced job openings in arts, entertainment, and recreation (-80,000), state/ federal government jobs (-17,000), and local government (-56,000).  

Swiss retail sales

June 2021 saw retail sales in Switzerland drop to 0.1% (YoY) from a high of 2.8% in May 2021.

Retail sales in Switzerland

Food sales dropped 2.1% (YoY) together with beverage and tobacco. There was an increase of 1.2% in non-food item sales (annualized). Retail sales decreased 3.5% on monthly terms for the 3rd straight month. April 2021 had seen the sales soar 23.7% before the decline took off. 

Technical analysis

There is a pullback forming in the USDCHF pair confirming a continued general uptrend, together with a 14-day RSI being 56.55. The pair is likely to reach 0.9272, the point when the upward breakout will be confirmed while also trending above the 9-day EMA at 0.9104.

USDCHF Technical analysis

There is low volatility as exhibited by the 14-day average true range (ATR) at 0.00658 showing slow movement from 0.9189. A price decline may pull the pair towards 0.9163.

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