By Dan Molinski
According to a survey by The Wall Street Journal, U.S. crude-oil stockpiles are anticipated to have fallen from the previous week. The average of estimates from 10 analysts and traders shows a projected decline of 1 million barrels for the week ended Sept. 15. While seven forecasters predict a decrease, three expect an increase. Expectations range from a decrease of 3.5 million barrels to an increase of 3.8 million barrels.
The Energy Department’s Energy Information Administration will release the closely watched inventory data at 10:30 a.m. EDT on Wednesday.
Gasoline Inventories Expected to Rise
Analysts are predicting that gasoline inventories will increase by 500,000 barrels from the previous week. Estimates range from a decrease of 3 million barrels to an increase of 3.1 million barrels.
Distillates Likely to Decrease
It is expected that stocks of distillates, mainly diesel fuel, will decrease by 200,000 barrels from the previous week. Forecasts range from a decrease of 3 million barrels to an increase of 1.9 million barrels.
Refinery Use Expected to Decline
Refinery use is likely to have fallen by 0.6 percentage point from the previous week to 93.1%. The forecasts range from a decrease of 1 percentage point to an increase of 0.4 percentage point. Two analysts did not make a forecast.
Summary of Forecasts
Here is a summary of the forecasts provided by different analysts:
| Analysts | Crude | Gasoline | Distillates | Refinery Use | |——————————|——-|———-|————-|————–| | Again Capital | -1.9 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | | Commodity Research Group | -3.5 | 1.2 | 1.1 | -1 | | Confluence Investment Mgmt. | -1.5 | -0.5 | -1 | -1 | | DTN | -2.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | -0.5 | | Excel Futures | 3.8 | 3.1 | 1.9 | -0.7 | | Spartan Capital Securities | 2.6 | 1.5 | 1.2 | n/f | | Mizuho | 2 | 1 | 1 | -1 | | Price Futures Group | -3 | -3 | -3 | -1 | | Ritterbusch and Associates | -2.5 |-1.4 |-1.5 | 0.4 | | Tradition Energy |-3.5 |0.2 |-3 | n/f | | AVERAGE |-1.0 |0.5 |-0.2 |-0.6 |
*n/f = no forecast *unch = unchanged
(Note: Numbers in millions of barrels, with the exception of refinery use, which is in percentage points.)