According to a survey conducted by The Wall Street Journal, U.S. crude-oil inventories are projected to remain largely unchanged in the upcoming Energy Department data, which is scheduled for release on Wednesday. The survey collected estimates from 10 analysts and traders, with an average forecast of a mere 10,000-barrel increase in commercial crude stockpiles for the week ending October 20. Out of the 10 forecasters, four predicted a decrease in inventories, while six expected an increase. The range of expectations varied from a decrease of 3 million barrels to an increase of 2.2 million barrels.
Gasoline Inventories Anticipated to Decrease
In the same survey, analysts predicted a decrease of approximately 300,000 barrels in gasoline inventories. The estimates ranged from a decrease of 2.5 million barrels to an increase of 1.5 million barrels.
Decline Expected in Distillate Stocks
Stocks of distillates, primarily diesel fuel, are expected to decline by 1.1 million barrels. Forecasts ranged from a decrease of 2.9 million barrels to an increase of 1.1 million barrels.
Increase in Refinery Use
Refinery use is likely to have increased by 0.5 percentage points to reach 86.6%. Projections for this metric varied from no change to an increase of 1.5 percentage points. Two analysts did not provide a forecast.
Below is a summary of the analysts’ forecasts for crude oil, gasoline, distillates, and refinery use:
| | Crude | Gasoline | Distillates | Refinery Use | |—————————-|——-|———-|————-|————–| | Again Capital | -2.8 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.6 | | Commodity Research Group | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.5 | | Confluence Investment Mgmt | 2 | -2.5 | -1.5 | 1.5 | | DTN | 1.1 | -0.75 | -1.4 | 0.03 | | Excel Futures | -3 | -1.5 | -2.2 | 0.4 | | Spartan Capital Securities | -1.4 | 1.1 | -2.9 | n/f | | Mizuho | 2 | -1 | -2 | 0.4 | | Price Futures Group | -3 | -1 | -1 | 0.0 | | Ritterbusch and Associates | 2.2 | -1.4 | -1.7 | 0.7 | | Tradition Energy | 1.1 | 1.5 | -0.25 | n/f | | AVERAGE | 0.0 | -0.3 | -1.1 | 0.5 |
Note: Numbers are in millions of barrels, except for refinery use, which is measured in percentage points.